The global economy has evolved from a resonance recovery at the beginning of the year to a differentiation. The US economy has maintained a strong recovery under the stimulus of tax cuts. Other developed and emerging economies have weakened. The Fed continued to raise interest rates, global trade problems continued to ferment, the Brexit negotiations in the UK were unresolved, the pressure on capital outflows in emerging market countries increased,japan property agency debts were worrying, and global financial risks increased. After the fourth quarter, the US stock market fluctuated sharply, and international crude oil prices The beginning of all the way down, triggered the market’s concerns about the global economic slowdown. Looking forward to 2019, the current strong trend of the US economy can continue in the short term, but the interest rate environment of continuous interest rate increase and the gradual weakening of tax reduction effects have all inhibited the US economic growth rate in 2019, and the turning point of the current US economic recovery decline. Or in the second half of 2019. External pressures in the Eurozone continue, internal political risks will also intensify,japan property agency and the economic outlook is not optimistic. The UK economy faces greater uncertainty in the Brexit negotiations. If it breaks smoothly,japan property agency the UK economy will see a mild recovery in 2019, otherwise it will face a severe impact. The overall situation of the Japanese economy has improved, but the tightening of the trade environment has cast a shadow over the Japanese economy. Under the support of loose monetary policy, the economy has weakly recovered or continued. In emerging markets, emerging economies with large foreign investment, large current account deficits and low foreign exchange reserves may still face a large potential impact in the first half of 2019,japan property agency with the Fed gradually increasing in the second half of the year.Stopping interest rate hikes, exchange rate risks in emerging markets will ease. On the whole, the global economy will tend to slow down in 2019. Although the degree will be different, the US economy may fall back in the second half of the year, but it will still be the best performing developed economy in the world. In 2018, the domestic economy supply and demand were weak, the supply side was increasingly constrained by weak demand, production slowed down,japan property agency the scale of social financing continued to languish, and the problem of credit obstruction remained. Before the new kinetic energy was yet to be bred, the downward pressure on the economy did not decrease. It is predicted that the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2018 will be at 6.6%. Looking forward to 2019, China’s economy will face a more severe domestic and international environment,japan property agency or it will continue to fall to 6.3%; but with the gradual emergence of the macro-reverse cyclical control policy, the short-term economic expectations are expected to improve in the second half of next year. . I. Main features of the world economy in 2018 (I) The global economy has moved from resonance to differentiation. In 2018, the global economy evolved from a resonance recovery at the beginning of the year to differentiation.
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